January 20, 2022
The BoP (Bank of Portugal) has just released December’s Economic Activity Coincident Indicator (EAI) and Private Consumption Coincident Indicator (PCI).
The figures were the following:
1 – Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: +3.6%YoY, vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): +1.7% and 3MMA: +3.60%;
2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: +5.5%YoY, vs. 12MMA: 4.1% and 3MMA: +6.1.
December’s data remains resilient, namely the general indicator Economic Activity, at 3.6%YoY in line with the 3MMA. Meanwhile Private Consumption is slowing down, which is probably understandable, because the Covid-19 Omicron variant, but also because over the last quarters has strongly outperformed the general indicator and so it should start to perform more in line with the general indicator. Nevertheless, the base effect is still favourable in January and February, as last year, 2021; the first 2/3 months of the year were still strongly impacted by the lockdown.
Summing up, consumption performance is slowing down, even so it should be a slow process and mainly due to unfavourable base effect as the year goes on. In fact monetary and fiscal policies remain essentially accommodative, which is positive for consumption.
Source: BoP, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
Back