reading time: 3 mins

Summing up: The economy regained momentum over the week that ended February 15 (+4.8% vs. 2.6% the week before): the Carnival may have interfered. Even so, the economy remains resilient, wages are increasing above inflation and mortgage interest rates are stabilizing.  

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays and  is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).

DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), so we should be cautious on the conclusions. Nevertheless, the DEI weekly average, slew down in January, however is improving over February, namely last week February’s moving average (+4.8% vs. 2.6% the week before). Important to highlight, that the DEI does not adjust bank holidays, so the Carnival, February 13, may have interfere.

Our comments: The economy regained momentum over the week, namely on the week that ended February 15 (moving average) since the DEI does not adjust by bank holidays, the Carnival (February 13) may have interfered.

Nevertheless, the economy remains resilient, wages are clearly increasing above inflation, unemployment remains at historically low levels, mortgage interest rates are stabilizing, so family budgets are not under pressure.

Daily Economic Indicator

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research