Macro View

(reading time: 4 mins)

Summing up: the DEI (Daily Economic Index) continues to surprise, the weekly average figure, 4QtD, improved once again and is now at 4.2%YoY vs. last week: 3.6% and the week before: 2.8%. The political crisis, apparently, is not impacting the economy; nevertheless is important to mention the 2024 budget, to be approved in the coming weeks, became more expansionist after new elections have been scheduled.

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays and  is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).

1 - DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below). Nevertheless, the DEI, weekly average keeps surprising (QtD: +4.2%YoY vs. last week: +3.6% and two weeks ago: 2.8%). Apparently is mainly November, data was reviewed upwards and recent data remains strong (please see the table below).

Our comments: The DEI keeps surprising, November +5%YoY vs. last week +3.2%YoY and 4QtD: +4.2% vs. last week 3.6% and two weeks ago: 2.8%. The political crisis is, apparently, not impacting the economy. Important to mention the Government budget 2024, that will be approved in the coming weeks, became more expansionist, after the political crisis and new elections have been scheduled.

Summing up, the economy remains resilient, the political crisis, apparently, is not impacting the economy; actually. November data is clearly outperforming.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research