(reading time: 3 mins)   

Summing up, the housing market keeps outperforming, prices +17.8%YoY, well above price changes in Spain, +12.9% or Euro Area, +5.2%; nevertheless, price increases in Portugal are now slightly below moving averages. Finally, nº of transactions went down on a yearly basis, while transaction of non-residents is also coming down and is slightly less than 5% of total transactions in the quarter. Nominal Mortgage interest rates on new loans are stabilizing slightly below 3%, and real interest rates, after Core inflation below 1%, historically an attractive level to borrow.          

• The Portuguese Statistics Office (INE) has just released the Housing market data regarding the 1Q26. The figures were the following:

• The Housing Price Index (new dwellings and existing dwellings) went up 17.8%YoY/3.8%QoQ vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average): +17.9% and 6MMA: +18.3%;
• Volumes (Nr. of transactions, new dwellings, and existing dwellings): -8.7%YoY vs. 12MMA: 1.5% and 6MMA: -6.7% (-12.4%QoQ):
• Volumes in the Lisbon area: -10.3%YoY vs. 12MMA: -2.0% and 6MMA: -11.1% (-7.7%QoQ);

• Volumes of non-Residents: -15.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: -16.9% and 6MMA: -18.3% (-13.5%QoQ)

Separately, roughly two weeks ago, the Spanish Statistic Institute released the housing data, regarding the 1Q26 – Prices: +12.9%YoY/+3.6%QoQ vs. 12MMA: +12.8% and 6MMA: +12.9% (+1.8%QoQ).

Finally, Housing prices in the Euro Area (4Q25): +5.2%YoY vs. 12MMA: 5.2% and 6MMA: 5.1%

Our comments: The Portuguese Housing market keeps outperforming, 1Q26 price index +17.8%YoY, in line with moving averages and compares with Spain +12.9% and Euro Area: +5.2%. Meanwhile, the nº of transaction adjusted on a yearly basis, while the nº of transactions of non-Residents continues to adjust, -15.6%YoY and 4.7% of total sales, slightly below 12MMA.  

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research