Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)   

Summing up, the housing market reached a new record 3Q25, Prices +17.7%YoY/+4.1%QoQ; while volumes +4.7%YoY/-0.1%QoQ, remain strong but below moving averages. Transactions from Non-residents, over the year have been consolidating around 5% of total transactions vs. 6% in 2024 and 7%/8% in 2023, the record year. Lower mortgage interest rates and a strong job market keep feeding the housing market, while foreigners are consolidating its share around 5% of total transactions.

• The Portuguese Statistics Office (INE) has just released the Housing market data regarding the 3Q25. The figures were the following:

• The Housing Price Index (new dwellings and existing dwellings) went up 17.7%YoY and 4.1%QoQ vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average): +15.7% and 6MMA: +17.5%;
• Volumes (Nr. of transactions, new dwellings, and existing dwellings): +4.7%YoY vs. 12MMA: 19.4% and 6MMA: +10.1% (-0.1%QoQ):
• Volumes in the Lisbon area: -2.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: 18.6% and 6MMA: +7.0% (-5.3%QoQ);

• Volumes of non-Residents: -16.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: -7.7% and 6MMA: -15.5% (+5.3%QoQ)

Separately, roughly two weeks ago, the Spanish Statistic Institute released the housing data, regarding the 3Q25 – Prices: +12.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: +12.3% and 6MMA: +12.8% (+2.9%QoQ).

Our comments: The Portuguese Housing market remains robust, Prices +17.7%/4.1%QoQ, above moving averages. Meanwhile, Volumes continued to increase, but Lisbon Area (-2.4%YoY) and non-Residents, -16.4%YoY.       

Lower mortgage interest rates and a strong job market continue feeding the housing market, while Foreigners are buying less on a yearly basis, however, over the year, have been consolidating around 5% of total transactions.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research