(reading time: 3 mins)   

Summing up, the housing market prices reached a new record in the 4Q25, Prices +18.9%YoY/+4.0%QoQ; while Nr of transaction -4.7%YoY/+1.4%QoQ, remained strong, but suffered from the base effect, as 4Q24 was abnormally high. Transactions from Non-residents, are smoothly adjusting, 4.8% of total transactions vs. 5% in 2025; 6.3% in 2024 and 7.6% in 2023, the record year. Lower mortgage interest rates and a strong job market keep feeding the housing market, while foreigners are smoothy becoming less relevant in the housing market

• The Portuguese Statistics Office (INE) released (yesterday, March 23) the Housing market data regarding the 4Q25. The figures were the following:

• The Housing Price Index (new dwellings and existing dwellings) went up 18.9%YoY and 4.0%QoQ vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average): +17.6% and 6MMA: +18.3%;
• Volumes (Nr. of transactions, new dwellings, and existing dwellings): -4.7%YoY vs. 12MMA: 9.9% and 6MMA: -0.4% (+1.4%QoQ):
• Volumes in the Lisbon area: -11.9%YoY vs. 12MMA: 7.2% and 6MMA: -7.1% (+0.5%QoQ);

• Volumes of non-Residents: -20.9%YoY vs. 12MMA: -12.6% and 6MMA: -18.7% (-7.8%QoQ)

Separately, roughly two weeks ago, the Spanish Statistic Institute released the housing data, regarding the 4Q25 – Prices: +12.9%YoY vs. 12MMA: +12.7% and 6MMA: +12.9% (+1.8%QoQ).

Finally, Housing prices in the Euro Area (3Q25): +5.1%YoY vs. 12MMA: 4.9% and 6MMA: 5.1%

Our comments: The Portuguese Housing market remains stronger than ever, Prices +18.9%/+4.0%QoQ, above moving averages. Meanwhile, Volumes adjusted, however is mainly a base effect, as 4Q24 was very strong. Volumes of Non-residents are adjusting, were 4.8% of total volumes in the 4Q25, or 2047 transactions, slightly below moving averages. Meanwhile, in Spain the housing market remains robust, but less exuberant, prices +12.9%; while in the Euro Area, the housing market is more rational, prices +5.1%YoY, in line with moving averages                

Lower mortgage interest rates and a strong job market continue feeding the housing market, while Foreigners are becoming slightly less relevant, slightly below 5% of total transactions.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research