The figures were the following:

1 – Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: -0.5%YoY, vs. 12MMA: -4.80% and 3MMA: -1.7%.  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 1.6%YoY, vs. 12MMA: -4.3% and 3MMA: +0.40%;

May’s data remains on the positive side, while past data was revised upwards, which often occurs (upwards or downwards). Private Consumption is recovering faster than Economic Activity, which does not bode well for growth as it usually means Imports growing quicker.

Nevertheless, BoP GDP estimates, presented yesterday were revised upwards - 2021: +4.8%; 2022: +5.6%, and 2023: +2.4%; quite probably had already taken this information into account. Still, according to BoP, the economy should match the 2019 level over the 1H22, 6 months earlier than the prior forecast.

All in all, positive news; however pretty much as expected; once the economy reopens we should expect higher activity. Structurally, it would be interesting to keep the consumption pattern under pressure and taking this opportunity to increase savings more sustainably, as the risk is the increase in consumption after higher savings would benefit mainly the Rest of the World economies.

Source: BoP, AS Independent Research