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Portugal – April Coincident Indicators adjusted, namely Private Consumption, +2.2%YoY; well below moving averages and the weakest figure in more than three years. Meanwhile, the DEI (Daily Economic Index), 2QtD (average) at 0.5%; also points to weakness in April. It remains unclear if it’s just a short-term reaction to higher gas prices or the beginning of an adjustment phase.

The Bank of Portugal released yesterday evening the monthly Coincident indicators, namely April’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 1.8%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 2.1% and 3MMA: 2.0%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 2.2%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.1% and 3MMA: 2.6%. 

Separately, the BoP, also released yesterday (weekly data), the Daily Economic Index (DEI), 2Q26 to date (average): +0.3%YoY vs. 0.0% one week ago (April, average: +0.5%YoY)              

Our comments: the Coincident Indicators adjusted in April, namely Private Consumption, 2.2%YoY, well below moving averages and the weakest figure in more than three years. Meanwhile, the DEI also points to a weaker April, 0.5%YoY (after average data 1Q26: 2.5% and 1Q26GDP: +2.3%). Data surprised, as the anecdotal evidence still shows roads full of cars (car sales in April: +15%YoY), my gym is crowded, even that a friend, a couple of days ago, mentioned restaurants are less crowded. Meanwhile, the ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator) in April adjusted to levels not seen since the summer 2024 (please read our comment on it, released two weeks ago).

All in all, apparently, April underperformed (April’s hard data should be released by the end of the month), meanwhile remains unclear if it’s a blip or the beginning of an adjustment phase.   

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research