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Quick Comment: Portugal – Coincident Indicators, remained surprisingly strong in August, Economic Activity, +2.5%YoY, above moving averages, and Private Consumption +3%YoY, above 3MMA, apparently unaffected by higher gasoline prices and mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, the DEI remains softer, however has been less closely tied to GDP performance. Finally, there are some headwinds in the Portuguese economy, namely traffic at airports growing only 2% over the summer months, employed population growing below 2% in July and finally social security contributions growing around mid-single digit over the last three months, below 12MMA, even so, the economy remains resilient.

The Bank of Portugal released yesterday evening the monthly Coincident indicators, namely August’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.5%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 2.3% and 3MMA: 2.4%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 3.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.2% and 3MMA: 2.9%. 

Separately, the BoP, also released yesterday (weekly data), the Daily Economic Index (DEI), 3Q26 to Date (average): +0.8%YoY (0.8% the week before)              

Our comments: the Coincident Indicators remained strong in August, +2.5%YoY and 3%, Economic Activity and Private Consumption, respectively. Private Consumptions remains strong, +3% above 3MMA, despite higher mortgage interest rates and gasoline prices, the same conclusion applies to the general indicator, Economic Activity, +2.5%YoY, above moving averages. The Daily Economic Indicator performance keeps softer, nevertheless, Coincident Indicators have been closer to the actual GDP’s performance than the DEI. There are some signals that the economy could turn south, namely passengers at Portuguese airports traffic growing only, around 2%YoY over the summer months, Employed population grew below 2% in July, the lowest figure since the end of 2024 and finally Social Security Contributions growing around mid-single digit over the last three months, vs higher figures before.                   

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research