(reading time: 2 mins)

In a nutshell, the Services account surplus in percentage of GDP for the last 12 months is now at 10.4% of GDP vs. the Goods balance deficit 10% of GDP. The Current account surplus (basically Goods plus Services) is now at 1.28% of GDP, data, historically, close to record levels. The Services performance should slowdown over the coming months, mainly due to seasonal factors (summer end), however, fortunately, the Goods balance deficit is also coming down, probably due to lower energy prices.

The Bank of Portugal has just released August External data.     

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Current Account Balance, in percentage of GDP, last 12 months: +1.28%. Compares with the 12MMA (12 months moving average): -0.4% and 3MMA: +0.9%;

2 – Goods Account Balance deficit (just goods, net): -10.0% of GDP (last 12months) vs. 12MMA: -10.6% and 3MMA: -10.2%;

3 – Goods Account deficit went down 25.7%YoY in August vs. 12MMA: +9.0% and 3MMA: -7%;

4 – Services Account Balance (just services, includes Travel Account Balance) surplus is at +10.4% of GDP (last 12 months) vs. 12MMA: 9.5% and 3MMA: 10.3%  

5 – Travel Account Balance (just tourism revenues, net; a subcomponent of Services Account Balance) surplus is at +7.1% of GDP (last 12months) vs. 12MMA: +6.7% and 3MMA: +7.0%;

6 – Travel Account surplus went up 10.9%YoY in August vs. 12MMA: +41% and 3MMA: +12%.

Our comments: The Current Account in August continued to outperform, strongly benefitting from the Travel Account and Transport Services (mainly air travel); both related with tourism; while the Goods Account balance deficit is stabilizing close to 10% of GDP.

In a nutshell, the Services account surplus in percentage of GDP for the last 12 months is now at 10.4% of GDP vs. the Goods balance deficit 10% of GDP. The Current account surplus (basically Goods plus Services) is now at 1.28% of GDP, data, historically, close to record levels. The Services Balance performance should slowdown over the coming months, mainly due to seasonal factors (summer end), however, fortunately, the Goods balance deficit is also coming down, probably due to lower energy prices. So, the surplus at the Current Account, should continue.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research