Portugal: August’s job data – The job market in August remained robust, Employed Population keeps growing above Active Population pushing downwards the unemployment rate on a yearly basis, to 5.75%. Nevertheless, Inactive population grew for the first time in two years, while Employed population is coming down, three months in a row, so, the job market is calming down (please see graphs below)…  

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Summing up, the job market in August remained robust, unemployment rate close to record low levels, while Employed population keeps growing above Active population pushing downwards the unemployment rate on a yearly basis. Nevertheless, there are some head winds, Inactive population grew in August for the first time since the summer of 2024, Active population annual growth is slowing down, actually, absolute figures are coming down, three months in a row. So, the momentum in the job market is calming down…

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released August’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population .    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in August 5.75% (+9bp MoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 5.75% and 3MMA: 5.70%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) went up 14bp MoM to 9.71%; compares with 12MMA: 9.74% and 3MMA: 9.54%;

3 – The Inactive Population went up 11bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -175bp/3MMA: -116bp (+93bp MoM);

4 – The Active population went up 0.78%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.08%/3MMA 1.35% (-31bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 0.89%YoY vs. 12MMA +2.63%/3MMA 1.54% (-40bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in August, remained robust, unemployment rate at 5.75% in line with moving averages; Employed population keeps growing, +0.89%YoY slightly above ActIve population growth +0.78%YoY. Nevertheless, figures in general are less strong than in the recent past, Inactive population in August increased +11bp YoY, the first time since the summer of 2024, while Employed population is growing below moving averages, actually, Employed population is coming down three months in a row. Data is preliminary and seasonally adjusted, so we should avoid jump to conclusions, nevertheless the momentum in the job market is calming down.

Source: INE, AS Independent Research