Macro View

Portugal: August’s job data – The job market slightly adjusted in August, unemployment rate increased 13bpMoM to 6.09%; even so Employed and Active population are reaching record levels…

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Summing up, the job market in August, slightly adjusted, the unemployment rate increased 13bpMoM to 6.09%. Nevertheless, Employed population and Active population, +3.4%YoY and 3.1%YoY, respectively, continue to show strong growth. The new immigration rule, should, first impact the Active population…  

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released August’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population.    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in August, 6.09% (+13bpMoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 6.33% and 3MMA: 6.05%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) went up 25bpMoM to 10.40%; compares with 12MMA: 10.68% and 3MMA: 10.28%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -225bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -124bp and 3MMA: -273bp (-18bpMoM);

4 – Active population went up 3.1%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.3% and 3MMA 3.3% (+18bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 3.4%YoY vs. 12MMA +2.51% and 3MMA 3.75% (+4bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in August, slowed down, on a monthly basis, the unemployment rate, 6.09%; +13bpMoM and Under-Utilization rate, a broad concept of unemployment, 10.4% (+25bpMoM). Even so, the number of Active population and Employed population keeps growing, annually, 3.1% and 3.4%; respectively. Meanwhile, the new immigration rule, should, over time, first impact the Active population. Finally, according to August’s budget execution analysis (Ministry of Finance), the number of people working for others in July went up 2.1%%YoY, the growth rate is slowing down, while the number of foreign people working in July increased 9.1%YoY vs. 9.9%YoY in June.      

Source: INE, AS Independent Research