Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up: the DEI (Daily Economic Index) was revised upwards, July and August, while September is outperforming average figure: 4.5%YoY. So the economy keeps surprising on the upside

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays and  is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).

1 - DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below). In fact July and August data were revised upwards, July average: -1.2%YoY (before: -1.6%) and August: +1.4%YoY (before: +0.5%); meanwhile September is outperforming +4.5%YoY. So the DEI is now pointing to 3Q23:+0.9%  (flat the week before). As we can see on the graph below, after low levels by the mid of July, August and particularly September clearly surprised.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research