Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up: the economy remains volatile, as after a strong September’s 1H (average: 4.7%YoY); the 3^rd week of the month was close to flat with 3 days out of 7 showing negative growth. Even so, according to the DEI, the quarter should finish positive, around 1% growth (0.9% last week);.

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).

1 - DEI remains volatile, as after a promising September’s first half, the 3^rd week of the month recorded a lower performance, with 3 days out of 7, showing negative growth. So, September’s growth is now pointing to 3.8% vs. 4.5% last week, while the quarter growth is pointing to 1% vs. 0.9% last week, the improvement derives from September’s higher weight on the quarter average.

All in all, the economy remains volatile, as after a strong September’s 1H (average:  4.7%YoY); the 3^rd week of the month was close to flat with positive and negative days. Even so the quarter should finish positive around 1% growth; according to the DEI.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research