Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, the economy remains volatile, after a strong October, November was weak and December seems even weaker, so 4Q24 GDP’s performance could be impacted…  

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – October (average): 6.5%YoY vs. 6.3% and 6.4%; one and two weeks before;

3 – November: 1.4%YoY vs. 1.4% and 1.4%; one and two weeks ago;

4 – December (MtD): 0.5% vs. 1.5% and 3%; one and two weeks   

3 – 4QtD: 2.9% vs. 3.3% and 3.8% one and two weeks before.

Our comments: the economy remains volatile on a monthly basis (YoY data). October was surprisingly strong, while November was weaker and December seems pretty weak. So, there’s some doubts about the 4Q24 performance (4Q24 GDP’s first estimate should be released Jan 30).

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research