Macro View

Portugal – Daily Economic Indicator  –  DEI average over the 1Q25, stable at +1.7%YoY, consistent with 1Q25 GDP growing between 2% and 2.5%, while Coincident Indicators continue to point to strong Consumption over the quarter   

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Summing up, DEI’s average data over the 1Q25 is stabilizing close to 1.7%YoY, which is consistent with 1Q25GDP growing between 2% and 2.5%. Meanwhile, monthly Coincident Indicators, also released today, remain robust, namely Consumption, average 1Q25: 4%; in line with the prior quarter.

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – January average: 1.8% vs. 1.8% and 1.3%; one and two weeks ago;

3 – February average:  2.2% vs. 2.0% and 1.6%, one and two weeks ago;

4 – March average: 1.1% vs. 1.3% and 0.8%, one an two weeks ago;

5 – 1Q25 average: 1.7% vs. 1.7% and 1.2% one and two weeks ago.  

Separately the BoP also released today the monthly Coincident indicators, namely March’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.0%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 1.8% and 3MMA: 1.8%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 4.1%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.2% and 3MMA: 4.0%.         

Our comments: DEI’s average data, 1Q25, points to 1.7% vs. 1.7% the week before, which should be consistent with GDP1Q25 growing between 2% and 2.5% (mid-point close to 2.3%, assuming excess performance similar to 4Q24; preliminary figures to be released April 30). Meanwhile, the monthly Coincident Indicators, also point to a strong 1Q25, mainly due to Consumption, as was the case of the 4Q24.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research