Macro View

Portugal – Daily Economic Indicator  –  DEI average over the 1Q25, was reviewed downwards to 1.7% almost matching 1Q25 GDP: +1.6%; meanwhile the economic activity remains weak in April

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s average data over the 1Q25 was reviewed downwards 1.7% vs. 2.2% the week before; almost in line with 1Q25 GDP: +1.6%YoY. Meanwhile, Apil’s average data, +0.5% (blackout day: -14.8%YoY).

DEI’s data remains quite volatile, even so, the economy activity is apparently losing momentum.

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – January average: 1.7% vs. 2.2% and 2.3%; one and two weeks ago;

3 – February average:  2.2% vs. 3.2% and 2.6%, one and two weeks ago;

4 – March average: 1.2% vs. 1.3% and 2.2%, one an two weeks ago;

5 – 1Q25 average: 1.7% vs. 2.2% and 2.4% one and two weeks ago; 

6 – April average: 0.5% vs. 0.6% and 0.3% one and two weeks ago.

Our comments: DEI’s data, was reviewed downwards over the 1Q25, after have being revised upwards before, so volatile figures. Meanwhile, the last figure 1Q25 average: 1.7%YoY vs. GDP: +1.6%YoY, almost in line, nevertheless DEI’s data is not adjusted.

Finally, April data remains on the weak side +0.5% vs. +0.6% and +0.3% the weeks before, while the blackout on April 28, recorded a strong negative figure (-14..8%YoY)

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research