Macro View

Portugal – Daily Economic Indicator  –  DEI average over the 1Q25, was reviewed upwards to 2.4% vs. 1.7% before, so 1Q25 GDP outperformed

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s average data over the 1Q25 was reviewed upwards 2.4% vs. 1.7% the weeks before, which means 1Q25GDP outperformed, figures around 2.5%YoY or higher should not surprise

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – January average: 2.3% vs. 1.8% and 1.8%; one and two weeks ago;

3 – February average:  2.6% vs. 2.2% and 2.0%, one and two weeks ago;

4 – March average: 2.2% vs. 1.1% and 1.3%, one an two weeks ago;

5 – 1Q25 average: 2.4% vs. 1.7% and 1.7% one and two weeks ago;   

Our comments: DEI’s average data, namely January, February and March’s was reviewed upwards, so 1Q25 average: 2.4%YoY vs. 1.7% before. Apparently, 1Q25 GDP should continue to outperform (preliminary data to be released April 30), figures around 2.5% or higher should not surprise.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research