Macro View

Portugal – Daily Economic Indicator  –  DEI remains weak, seems mainly a base effect, so GDP should be outperforming the DEI

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, the DEI 1Q25tD average, 1.4% vs. 1.3% the week before. Data remains weak, however, there is a base effect that limits DEI’s performance (similar to the 4Q24), so, over the current quarter, the GDP should outperform the DEI.  

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – January average: 1.3% vs. 1.3% and 1.3%; one and two weeks ago;

3 – February average (MtD):  1.6% vs. 1.3% the week before;

4 – 1Q25tD average: 1.4% vs. 1.3% and 1.2% one and two weeks ago.  

Our comments: the DEI remains weak, 1.4%QtD and roughly stable. Apparently, the DEI points to a weak economic performance in the first two months of the year. However, as we mentioned before, there was a discrepancy over the 4Q24, between GDP and DEI, it seems mainly a high base effects, that should occur again in the 1Q25; so the economy over the 1Q25, should outperformed the DEI, as was the case in the 4Q24.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research