Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s 3QtD average data, was reviewed slightly upwards, even so remains negative: -0.5%. Other data points to July’s activity in line with moving averages, so, apparently, the indicator is underestimating the economic activity as was the case over the 2Q25.      

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator, (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here .

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – July’s average: -0.7%YoY vs. -0.9% and -0.8% one and two weeks ago;

3 – 3QtD average: -0.5% vs. -0.8% the week before.    

Our comments: DEI’s average data, over the 3Q25, remains on the weak side, actually, negative (-0.5%YoY), even so it was reviewed slightly upwards vs. the prior week.  Nevertheless, other data , namely BoP’s July Coincident Indicators, released last week, +1.7%YoY and 3.1%YoY; Economic Activity and Private Consumption; respectively, were in line with moving averages . In fact, DEI underestimated the economic activity over the 2Q25 (2Q25 GDP +1.9%YoY vs. DEI (average): +1.1%), so, apparently, is suffering from the same bias    

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research