Macro View

Portugal – Daily Economic Indicator  –  DEI’s average in April and May negative, while Coincident Indicators in line with moving averages. Apparently, the economy keeps adjusting, however data has been volatile.    

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s average data remains volatile, namely 1Q25; while April and May data are negative, which is unusual. Meanwhile, BoP April Coincident indicators were released, Economic Activity +1.6%YoY and Private Consumption  +3.1%; data in line with 12MMA, while Consumption remains stronger than the general index, but below 3MMA. Data released is on the weak side, however it has often been adjusted, so remains difficult to have a strong view.   

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – January average: 1.9% vs. 1.7% and 2.2%; one and two weeks ago;

3 – February average:  2.4% vs. 2.2% and 3.2%, one and two weeks ago;

4 – March average: 2.2% vs. 1.2% and 1.3%, one an two weeks ago;

5 – 1Q25 average: 2.1% vs. 1.7% and 2.2% one and two weeks ago;

6 – April average: -0.2% vs. +0.5% and 0.6% one and two weeks ago;

7 – May (MtD): -0.8%    

Separately the BoP also released today the monthly Coincident indicators, namely April’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 1.6%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 1.6% and 3MMA: 1.6%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 3.1%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.1% and 3MMA: 3.6%.         

Our comments: DEI’s average data, over the 1Q25 remains volatile, as data was reviewed upwards, after last week have been reviewed downwards, we believe the Easter impact could partially explain data’s volatility, even that DEI’s is not adjusted. Meanwhile, April and May’s data have been clearly on the weak side, actually negative. Finally, April’s BoP monthly Coincident Indicators were released and also point to a weaker activity, +1.6%YoY even so, still in line with moving averages, while Consumption, +3.1%YoY remains stronger, but below 3MMA.      

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research