Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s 2Q25 average data, was reviewed slightly upwards again, +1.1% vs 1% the week before; even so, remains lower than in prior quarters and volatile. So, is difficult to have a view on GDP 2Q25 performance (preliminary data should be released July 30).

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator, (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here .

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – April’s average: +1.1%YoY vs. +1.2% and 0.8% one and two weeks ago;

3 – May’s average: +1.4% vs. +0.9% and 0.7%;  one and two weeks ago;

4 – June’s average: +0.7% vs. +0.8% and 0.9% on and two weeks ago;

5 – 2Q25 average: +1.1% vs. +1.0% and 0.8% one and two weeks ago.    

Our comments: DEI’s average data, over the 2Q25, was reviewed slightly upwards, +10bp to +1.1%; nevertheless, data remains volatile, as April and June were reviewed downwards and May upwards. So, remains difficult to have a view on the 2Q25 GDP performance (preliminary data should be released July 30), while current data, average, +1.1%YoY, points to a weaker quarter, other data, namely retail sales points to stronger quarter (forecasts point to 1.9%YoY).     

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research