Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s 2Q25 average data, was reviewed upwards again and is now consolidating in positive territory +1.0% vs. +0.8% in the prior week, even so still below past quarters. Current data is more aligned with other data, namely retail sales that recorded strong growth, or car sales; however, for instance, cement sales growth was negative in the quarter. All in all, some uncertainty regarding the 2Q25 GDP performance (preliminary data should be released July 30, 2025).

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator, (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here .

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – April’s average: +1.2%YoY vs. +0.8% and -0.3% one and two weeks ago;

3 – May’s average: +0.9% vs. +0.7% and -0.4%;  one and two weeks ago;

4 – June’s average: +0.8% vs. +0.9% and -0.6% on and two weeks ago;

5 – 2Q25 average: +1.0% vs. +0.8% and -0.4% one and two weeks ago.    

Our comments: DEI’s average data, over the 2Q25, was reviewed upwards again from +0.8% to +1.0% and is now consolidating in positive territory; even so, below past quarters. Figures are clearly more aligned with other data, that has been released by INE, namely retail sales that clearly outperformed (April and May average +5.9%YoY, volumes; or car sales average: +13.9%YoY), even that, for instance, average cement sales growth was negative in the quarter: -1.7%YoY).    

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research