Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, DEI’s 3QtD average data, remains, surprisingly, negative, -0.8%QtD, as hard data, namely July Retail sales (volumes) were very strong +7.2%YoY. Apparently, the DEI is underestimating the GDP growth, as it was the case in the 2Q25.      

The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator, (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please visit the following link here .

1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile;

2 – July’s average: -0.7%YoY vs. -0.7% and -0.7% one and two weeks ago;

3 – August’s average: -0.9%YoY;

3 – 3QtD average: -0.8% vs. -0.8% and -0.5%, one and two weeks ago.    

Our comments: DEI’s average data, over the 3Q25, remains weak, actually, negative (-0.8%YoY), nevertheless it has underestimated the GDP growth (2Q25 GDP: +1.9% vs. DEI’s average: +1.1%). Meanwhile, hard data, namely Retail Sales in July, +7.2%YoY; above moving averages, shows that consumption is quite strong.   

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research