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Summing up, the job market in February alleviated, unemployment rate increased 22bp MoM to 5.84%, above 3MMA. It could be related with the storms, even so job’s data is often reviewed. Finally, Employed Population growing around 2% or lower could be a potential problem to GDP growth.     

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released February’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population (we were not able to comment yesterday, sorry for any inconvenience).    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in February 5.84% (+22bpMoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 5.93% and 3MMA: 5.68%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) also increased +14bp MoM to 9.71%; compares with 12MMA: 10.08% and 3MMA: 9.63%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -136bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -180bp and 3MMA: -151bp (+26bp MoM);

4 – Th Active population went up 1.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.70% and 3MMA 2.03% (-2bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 2.0%YoY vs. 12MMA +3.24% and 3MMA 2.74% (-25bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in February, alleviated slightly, unemployment rate increased 22bp MoM to 5.84%; above 3MMA, mainly because Employed population went down 25bp MoM, while Active population went down only 2bpMoM. On a yearly basis, Employed Population growing at 2%YoY and Active Population +1.6%YoY, justifies current lower unemployment rate, 5.84%; than 12 months ago, 6.25%.

All in all, weaker job data in February, that could be partially explained by the storms, nevertheless job’s data is often reviewed. Finally Employed population growing at 2% or below could be a potential problem to GDP growth.          

Source: INE, AS Independent Research