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Quick Comment: Portugal – July External data – Travel surplus flat YoY, the positive performance of the Tourism sector is coming to an end…  

In a nutshell, external data in July, remains under pressure, Current Account recorded a surplus, €828Mn, however less €493Mn than in July 2025, due to higher deficit at Balance  of Goods and smaller surplus at Balance of Services. Travel account surplus in July was flat YoY, clearly below moving averages, meanwhile, the deficit of Balance of Goods keeps increasing, +7.6%YoY in July and at record levels, 10.4% of GDP

The Bank of Portugal has just released July’s External Balance data.     

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Current Account Balance, in percentage of GDP, last 12 months (LTM): 0.23%. Compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): +0.9% and 3MMA: +0.4%;

2 – Balance of Goods (just goods, net), deficit: -10.4% of GDP (LTM) vs. 12MMA: -10.0%/3MMA: -10.3%;

3 – Balance of Goods, deficit, in July, went up +7.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: +16.8%/3MMA: +15.9%;

4 – Balance of Services (just services, net; includes Travel Account Balance) surplus: +10.4% of GDP (LTM) vs. 12MMA: 10.7% and 3MMA: 10.5%;

5 – Balance of Services, Surplus, in July, -3.7%YoY vs. 12MMA: 1.3%/3MMA: -0.6%;    

4 – Travel Account Balance (just tourism revenues, net; a subcomponent of Services Account Balance) surplus is at +7.0% of GDP (LTM) vs. 12MMA: +7.1%/3MMA: +7.1%;

5 – Travel Account surplus, in July was flat YoY vs. 12MMA: +3.0%/3MMA: +2.1%.

Our comments: The Portuguese current account in July was positive €828Mn, however less €493Mn than July 2025, mains due to higher deficit at Balance of Goods +€195Mn and smaller surplus at Balance of Services, -€141Mn. The Tourism outperformance is coming to an end, Travel Account Surplus in July was flat YoY and 7% of GDP LTM, below moving averages. Meanwhile, the negative pressure at Balance of Goods remains intact, deficit +7.6%YoY in July and 10.4% of GDP.

All in all, the external figures are deteriorating, Services Balance surplus is coming down, Travel net revenues are flat YoY, in line with the lower performance at Portuguese traffics airports, +2%YoY in the summer months, while the deficit at Balance of Goods continues to increase.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research