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Portugal: June’s job data – The job market in June remained robust, Employed Population keeps growing above Active Population pushing downwards the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, we present a new graph that shows the strong relationship between Employed population growth rate YoY and GDP growth…

Summing up, the job market in June remained robust, unemployment rate close to record low levels, while Employed population keeps growing above Active population pushing downwards the unemployment rate. More interesting is the graph below that shows the strong relationship between employed population change YoY and GDP growth YoY, as Employed population growth adjust to figures below 2%; we should expect GDP growth also to adjust. The graph shows negative productivity gains between Fenriary 2025 and February 2026.  

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released June’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population .    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in June 5.59% (flat MoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 5.79% and 3MMA: 5.62%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) went down 12bp MoM to 9.28%; compares with 12MMA: 9.81% and 3MMA: 9.45%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -184bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -208bp/3MMA: -207bp (+78bp MoM);

4 – The Active population went up 1.68%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.45%/3MMA 1.81% (-23bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 2.09%YoY vs. 12MMA +3.06%/3MMA 2.38% (-26bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in June, remained robust, unemployment rate close to record low levels, while Employed population keeps growing above Active population on a yearly basis pushing downwards the unemployment rate. More interesting is the graph that shows the strong relationship between change on Employed Population and GDP growth, in fact as the Employed population change comes down, the GDP growth should also adjust to figures below 2%, finally productivity has been under strong pressure, reflecting a very intensive labour development model.

Source: INE, AS Independent Research