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Portugal – March Coincident Indicators slightly adjusted, namely Private Consumption, +2.8%YoY; below moving average, meanwhile the general index at 2.0% also adjusted. The DEI, daily economic index, 1QtD average at 2.5%; is in line with the Coincident Indicators. The recent performance of the Portuguese economy (last few years) was mainly driven by consumption and more people employed. Meanwhile, productivity went down (GDP growing below employed people, as the services sector is a low value-added sector), so any weakness on consumption, could trigger a sharp increase on redundancies.

The Bank of Portugal released yesterday evening the monthly Coincident indicators, namely March’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.0%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 2.0% and 3MMA: 2.1%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 2.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.2% and 3MMA: 3.0%. 

Separately, the BoP, also released yesterday (weekly data), the Daily Economic Index (DEI), 1Q26 average: 2.5%YoY vs. 2.2% one and two weeks ago. April to date: -0.3%              

Our comments: the Coincident Indicators slightly adjusted in March, 2.0%; slightly below 3MMA and in line with 12MMA; meanwhile Private Consumption receded, 2.8%YoY below moving averages. So, seems fair to assume, the small weakness seen on the general index IN March is mainly due to lower momentum on private consumption. Private Consumption has clearly outperformed, however in the recent past, we have noticed some red flags, namely air traffic at airports (1Q26): +3.9% vs. 12MMA 5% and 3MMA: 3.9%; Social Security Contributions, Feb: +7.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: 8.2% and 3MMA: 8.1% and Employed population in February: +2%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.2% and 3MMA: 2.7%. An adjustment on Consumption, should have several implications in the current economic environment, namely lower tax revenues, and higher social expenditures, as Services will employ fewer people or, potentially, redundancies, so unemployment could sharply increase.  

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research