(reading time: 2 mins)

Summing up, the job market in March was almost flat with February, unemployment rate 5.83% +3bpMoM, so up to now the storms in February and the Iran war, started in March, has had no impact in the job market. Nevertheless, apparently, there’s a slight adjustment trend in place, “Employed Population”, +2.21%YoY, is growing below moving averages, fortunately “Active Population” is also growing below moving averages, so the unemployment rate remains stable.      

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released March’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population (we were not able to comment yesterday, sorry for any inconvenience).    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in March 5.83% (+3bpMoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 5.89% and 3MMA: 5.75%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) increased +5bp MoM to 9.81%; compares with 12MMA: 10.02% and 3MMA: 9.71%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -171bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -194bp and 3MMA: -172bp (-7bp MoM);

4 – Th Active population went up 1.72%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.68% and 3MMA 1.76% (+13bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 2.21%YoY vs. 12MMA +3.26% and 3MMA 2.35% (+9bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in March, was almost flat vs. the prior month, nevertheless taking in consideration that the Iran’s war was already in full swing and February storms, we could expect an adjustment. Nevertheless, there’s a slight negative trend in the job market, namely employed population is growing at 2.2%YoY, below moving averages; 12MMA: 3.26% and 3MMA: 2.35%; fortunately, the Active population is also adjusting, +1.72%YoY also below moving averages, so the unemployment rate remains stable, slightly below 6%.         

Source: INE, AS Independent Research