Portugal: November’s job data – The unemployment rate reaches a new low 5.67%, since February 2002, while the Employed population and employed rate, 65.8% are record figures. Since, Employed Population is growing faster than Active Population, the unemployment rate will continue to adjust

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Summing up, the job market in November remained robust, unemployment rate 5.67% (-17bpMoM), a record low, since February 2002 and Employed rate, 65.8%, a record figure. As we mentioned before, the job market should remain tight, as the Employed population is growing faster than the Active Population, so the unemployment rate will continue to adjust. The new migration policies could be already impacting the job market, namely the Active population growing slowly.     

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released November’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population.    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in November, 5.67% (-17bpMoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 6.13% and 3MMA: 5.83%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) went down as 26bpMoM to 9.78%; compares with 12MMA: 10.39% and 3MMA: 10.00%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -165bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -162bp and 3MMA: -173bp (-9bpMoM);

4 – Active population went up 2.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.71% and 3MMA 2.87% (+22bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 3.8%YoY vs. 12MMA +3.09% and 3MMA 3.67% (+41bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in November remained robust, unemployment rate at 5.67%, is the lowest figure since February 2002 (5.6%), while the Employed population and the employed rate, 5 306 100 and 65.8%, respectively are two record figures (series data started in February 1998). Meanwhile, and as we explained before, the Employed Population, +3.8%YoY is growing faster than the Active population, 2.8%YoY (please see the graphs below), so the unemployment rate should continue to come down, unless the economy slows down. The new migration policies are probably already impacting the job market.           

Source: INE, AS Independent Research