Macro View

Portugal – October Coincident Indicators continue to point to strong performance, the general Index, Economic Activity 2.2%, above moving averages and the Private Consumption index, 3.0%YoY (both, past data was reviewed upwards). October recorded a strong pace in line with the 3Q25. Meanwhile, the DEI, released on a weekly basis, continues to undervalue the performance of the Portuguese economy, losing traction.

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The Bank of Portugal released yesterday evening the monthly Coincident indicators, namely October’s data. The figures were the following:
1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.2%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 1.9% and 3MMA: 2.1% (past data was reviewed between 10 and 30bp);
2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 3.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.4% and 3MMA: 3.1% (past data was reviewed upwards between 10 and 20bp).

Separately, the BoP, also released yesterday (weekly data), the Daily Economic Index (DEI), that continues to undervalue the performance of the economic activity, the DEI in October -0.1%YoY and 4QtD flat.

Our comments: October Coincident Indicators released yesterday evening maintained a strong performance, in line with the 3Q25 or above, namely the Economic Activity Indicator, 2.2%; above 12MMA and 3MMA. Nevertheless, Private Consumption Coincident Indicator remains well above the Economic Indicator. In a nutshell, October started in a strong pace, in line with the 3Q25, Finally the DEI, released yesterday, continues to undervalue the performance of the economy, so is losing traction.

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research