Macro View

Portugal: October’s job data – The unemployment rate is consolidating below 6%, while Employed population is growing above Active population, which means lower unemployment rates in the coming quarters

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Summing up, the job market in October remained strong, unemployment rate 5.87%; consolidating below 6%. Meanwhile, Active population is growing below Employed population, which means lower unemployment rates in the coming quarters, unless the economy cools down. The lower growth rate on the Active population could be related with the new immigration rules      

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released October’s job preliminary data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population.    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in October, 5.87%; compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 6.21% and 3MMA: 5.95%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) was almost flat MoM, 10.10%; compares with 12MMA: 10.51% and 3MMA: 10.17%;

3 – The Inactive Population went down -109bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -150bp and 3MMA: -203bp (+113bpMoM);

4 – Active population went up 2.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.59% and 3MMA 3.02% (-35bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 3.3%YoY vs. 12MMA +2.88% and 3MMA 3.57% (-24bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in October kept the strong performance, Unemployment rate consolidating below 6%. Meanwhile, the Employed population is growing above the Active population (please see graph below), which means additional pressure on the job market, lower unemployment rate in the coming quarters. The lower growth of the Active population could be related with the new immigration rules.

Source: INE, AS Independent Research