Portugal: September’s job data – The job market in September remained robust, unemployment rate at 5.5%, close to record low levels however is mainly because Active population is growing at a slower pace (please see graphs below)

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Summing up, the job market in September kept the main trends, namely lower unemployment rate, 5.5%; below moving averages. However, the positive figures are mainly because Active population is growing at a slower pace than because, Employed population is growing faster. Both are growing at a slower pace. We assume Active population lower growth should be mainly due to the new migration policies, while Employed population lower growth should be due to the economic activity.       

The INE (Portuguese Statistic Institute) has just released September’s preliminary job data, namely Rate of Unemployment, Under Utilization Rate, Employed Population and Underutilization Population .    

The main highlights are the following:

1 – Unemployment rate in September 5.5% (-8bp MoM); compares with 12MMA (12 months moving average): 5.71% and 3MMA: 5.61%;

2 – The Under-Utilization rate (takes in consideration the under-utilization population divided by a broad concept of Active population) went up 3bp MoM to 9.59%; compares with 12MMA: 9.68% and 3MMA: 9.55%;

3 – The Inactive Population went up 121bp YoY vs. 12MMA: -146bp/3MMA: -2bp (+59bp MoM);

4 – The Active population went up 0.26%YoY vs. 12MMA: 1.84%/3MMA 0.84% (-18bp MoM):  

5 – The Employed population went up 0.61%YoY vs. 12MMA +2.38%/3MMA 1.07% (-9bp MoM).

Our comments: the job market, in September, kept the main trends, namely lower unemployment rate, 5.5%, below moving averages. Nevertheless, it’s mainly because the Active population is not growing, +0.26%YoY/-18bpQoQ, below moving averages than because Employed population is growing at a strong pace. In fact, Employed population, +61bpYoY/-9bpMoM, below moving averages, is also adjusting. So, Active Population is growing at a slower pace, we assume due to the new migration policies, while the Employed population is growing at a slower pace, we should assume due to lower economic activity.

Source: INE, AS Independent Research