Macro View

Portuguese Economy – August retail sales, volumes, +4.9%YoY, o/w Food: +4.6% and non-Food: +5.2%. Positive data, more balanced, however below moving averages

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Summing up, Retail Sales in August, volumes: +4.9%YoY, below moving averages, o/w, Food: +4.6% and non-Food +5.2%. Still robust data, balanced between Food and Non-Food, even so adjusting from higher figures over the last four months. September should outperform, however over the 4Q25, the high base effect should impact growth. Finally, E-commerce in Spain keeps performing…  

The Portuguese Statistic Institute (INE) has just released August’s Retail Sales data.  

We would highlight the following:

• Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +4.9%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) +5.4% and 3MMA +6.1%;
• Non-food Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +5.2%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.3% and 3MMA +6.7%;
• Food Sales, deflated raw data: +4.6%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.6% and 3MMA +5.5%;
• Nominal Food sales (raw data): +7.2%YoY vs. 12MMA +6.3% and 3MMA +7.8%;
• Clothes, Shoes & Textile (nominal raw data): 6.1%YoY vs. 12MMA: +5.0% and 3MMA: +5.1%;
• Household goods (nominal raw data): -3.5%YoY vs. 12MMA: +0.8% and 3MMA: +1.8%;

• Mail and Internet retail (nominal raw data): +2.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 4.7% and 3MMA: -0.3%.

Separately, the Spanish Statistic Institute released, Monday, August retail sales data, namely E-commerce, Non-food retail sales, +14.9%YoY vs. 12MMA: 10.4% and 3MMA: 14.8%.   

Our comments: Retail sales in August, volumes, kept a strong performance, +4.9%YoY; nevertheless, weaker than the last four months, below the moving averages, even so balanced between Non-Food, +5.2%YoY and Food +4.6%YoY.

The base effect is high, namely from October onwards, as the 4Q24, mainly due to the fiscal expansion, outperformed, so we should expect a lower performance over the 4Q25; while September should record a positive performance (mainly base effect).           

Internet sales in Portugal have underperformed (+2.0%YoY), while in Spain keep growing at strong rates, +14.9%YoY, in line with 3MMA and above 12MMA.

Source: INE, Eurostat, AS Independent Research