Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up, the Euro Area ESI in April continued to adjust, mainly Services Confidence and Consumer, two months in a row, the index is now below moving averages; while industry remains in the doldrums. Portugal is also adjusting, the third month in a row, mainly due to Services Confidence and Consumer. The Portuguese indices are adjusting and are now more aligned with the Euro Area’s performance, after a strong 4Q24, stimulated by expansionary fiscal policy.

The European Commission has just released, April’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – April Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) went down 140bpMoM to 93.6 vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 95.5 and 3MMA: 94.9;      

2 – Concerning the sub components, Services and Cons. Confidence remain under pressure, two months in a row, while industry keeps depressed;       

3 – The Portuguese ESI went down, the third time in a row -120bpMoM to 101.40 vs. 12MMA: 103.6 and 3MMA: 102.6;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Consumer Confidence and Services Confidence remain under strong pressure, the second month in a row;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, flat MoM  at 101; compares with the 12MMA: 100.1 and 3MMA: 100.9;

6 – Polish Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, -3.0 vs. 12MMA: -1.7 and 3MMA: -2.8 and Consumer Confidence: +1.1 vs. 12MMA: -0.2 and 3MMA: -0.2.

Our comments: The Euro Area ESI disappointed, the second month in a row, -140bp to 93.6; and clearly below moving averages. Services and Consumer Confidence are under pressure while industry remains in the doldrums. Portugal continues to adjust, after an outperformance between September and January, the index has adjusted over the last three months; even that hard data still points to a robust 1Q25GDP. 

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research