Portuguese Economy: Economic Sentiment Indicator, December – Portuguese index ESI finished the year above the moving averages, definitely positive and consistent with other data, while in the Euro Area, ESI, is consolidating at current levels, above one year ago figures

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Summing up, the Euro Area ESI in December, went slightly down -40bpMoM, to 96.7; even so above the 12MMA and just slightly below the 3MMA. Meanwhile, in Portugal, the ESI, in December, improved, +90bpMoM, consolidating above the moving averages.  

The European Commission has just released, December’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – December Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) went slightly down -40bpMoM to 96.7 vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 95.6 and 3MMA: 96.9;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components there were no significant changes;  

3 – The Portuguese ESI outperformed, +90bp MoM to 107.5, compares with 12MMA: 105.5 and 3MMA: 106.2;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Services strongly improved, +230bpMoM; while Industry slightly adjusted, after a strong increase in the prior month, which was unexpected, as industry is in general suffering;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, +110bp MoM to 100; compares with the 12MMA: 99.9 and 3MMA: 99.1;

Our comments: The Euro Area ESI finished the year above the 12MMA and slightly below the 3MMA, so consolidating in the current figures (96.7) and better than one year ago (+310bpYoY). Industry remains on the weak side, even so above the levels recorded one year ago, while Services and Consumer Confidence are flattish. Meanwhile, Portugal is finishing the year in a positive note, in line with the recent quarters. Finally, Polish data has slightly improved over the recent months.

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research