(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up, the Euro Area ESI data improved in August, the fourth month in a row, mainly Services and Industry; above moving averages. Meanwhile, in Portugal, data has shown lack of momentum, figures below moving averages and against the modest positive trend in the Euro Area.        

The European Commission has just released August ’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – May Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), +130bpMoM to 98.4 (+3.1% YoY) vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 96.7 and 3MMA: 97.0;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components, Industry Confidence keeps smoothly improving +80bpMoM, to -5.3 (12MMA: -7.6/3MMA: -6.3), Services, +70bpMoM to +5.8 (12MMA: 4.9/3MMA: 5.1) and Consumer Confidence +40bp MoM;   

3 – The Portuguese ESI went slightly down, -110pbMoM to 101.8 (-3.7%YoY), compares with 12MMA: 103.3/3MMA: 102.5;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Consumer Confidence and Industry adjusted slightly downwards, while Services slightly improved;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, -50bp MoM to 99.6 (+1.7%YoY). It compares with 12MMA: 99.8/3MMA: 100.0.

Our comments: In August, the Euro Area ESI kept improving, above moving averages, mainly Industry and Services. Meanwhile, Portugal underperformed, below moving averages, it has shown lack of momentum, against the trend in the Euro. Area. Finally, Poland is performing almost in line with moving averages.  

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research