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Summing up, the Euro Area ESI in February, slightly adjusted -100bpMoM, after a strong January, even so data remains above the moving averages, so the smooth upwards trend remains in place. Meanwhile, in Portugal data remains volatile, monthly data improved sequentially however the “momentum” is, apparently, weaker. Finally, we still don’t notice the impact of the series of storms, that crossed Portugal by the end of January, begin of February, but Consumer Confidence that suffered in February.      

The European Commission has just released, February’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – February Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) slightly adjusted, after a strong January, -100bpMoM to 98.3 (+1.8% YoY) vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 96.4 and 3MMA: 98.2;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components, Services and Industry adjusted after a strong January; even so Industry at -7.1, remains above the moving averages and well above the figures of one year ago;   

3 – The Portuguese ESI slightly improved, +90bp MoM to 104.3 (+1.3%YoY), after a strong adjustment in January, compares with 12MMA: 104.3 and 3MMA: 104.6;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Services and Industry improved monthly, after a weaker January, while Consumer Confidence strongly adjusted. It could be related with the series of storms that impacted the country January/February, nevertheless data remains volatile;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, -190bp MoM to 101.3; after a strong performance in January. It compares with the 12MMA: 100.3 and 3MMA: 101.6.

Our comments: The Euro Area ESI slightly adjusted in February, after a strong January, even so data remains above the moving averages and slowly improving (please see charts below). Meanwhile, in Portugal, data remains volatile, after a weaker January, February improved, however data in line with the moving averages, and weaker “momentum”. Finally, we still don’t notice the impact from the series of storms, that crossed Portugal by the end of January, beginning of February, but Consumer Confidence that went down in February to -17.1; -350bpMoM; clearly below moving averages.         

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research