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Summing up, the Euro Area ESI in January, surprised +220bpMoM, to 99.4 (+4%YoY), above the moving averages, Industry and Services, both improved sequentially. Meanwhile, in Portugal, the ESI, in January underperformed -300bpMoM…        

The European Commission has just released, January’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – January Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) went strongly up +220bpMoM to 99.4 (+4%YoY) vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 96.3 and 3MMA: 98.0;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components, all improved but construction. Services and Industry clearly outperformed;  

3 – The Portuguese ESI underperformed, -300bp MoM to 104.2 (-2.7%YoY) , compares with 12MMA: 105.0 and 3MMA: 105.9;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Services, and Industry strongly adjusted, nevertheless data remains volatile;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, +300bp MoM to 103.2; compares with the 12MMA: 100.3 and 3MMA: 100.9;

Our comments: The Euro Area ESI started the year stronger than expected, +220bpMoM to 99.4 (+4%YoY) and clearly above the moving averages. Industry and Services, both improved. Meanwhile, in Portugal, January according to this survey was weaker, -300bp MoM to 104.2 (-2.7%YoY) and below moving averages. Figures have been volatile in Portugal, so we must be cautious, in fact it seems like a pause, while the Euro Area has slowly improved.        

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research