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Summing up, the Euro Area ESI data adjusted slightly in October, mainly Services and Consumer Confidence, while in Portugal the ESI adjusted sharply, also Consumer Confidence and Services.        

The European Commission released yesterday October’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal (we could not comment yesterday, sorry for any inconvenience).

The main highlights are the following:

1 – October Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), -60bpMoM to 96.9 (-0.2% YoY) vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 96.8 and 3MMA: 97.5;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components, Consumer Confidence and Services Confidence adjusted MoM while Industry Confidence slightly improved;   

3 – The Portuguese ESI went down -140bpMoM to 100.8 (-2.7%YoY), compares with 12MMA: 102.9/3MMA: 101.6;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Consumer Confidence and Services suffered; while Industry slightly improved;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, +20bp MoM to 99.0 (+0.8%YoY). It compares with 12MMA: 99.8/3MMA: 99.1.

Our comments: In October, the Euro Area ESI slightly adjusted, the second month in a row and is now below 3MMA, meanwhile Industry remains in negative territory, however, it has improved, the fifth month in a row. Regarding Portugal, the ESI adjusted sharply, mainly Consumer Confidence and Services Confidence, as Industry also improved. Finally, Poland, data slightly below the moving averages, also lacking momentum.  

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research