Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up, the Euro Area ESI in September, went slightly up +20bpMoM, to 95.5. Data is in line with moving averages (3Q25 index average: -0.5%YoY/+1.2%QoQ) showing stable data on a weak environment. Meanwhile, the ESI in Portugal in September adjusted from a strong August, however data remains in line with moving averages, keeping outperforming the Euro Area (3Q25 index average: +3.8%YoY/+1.2%QoQ).       

The European Commission has just released, September’s monthly surveys, Euro Area (EA) and countries, namely Portugal.

The main highlights are the following:

1 – September Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) went slightly up 20bpMoM to 95.5 vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 95.1 and 3MMA: 95.5;      

2 – Concerning the sub-components, Consumer Confidence slightly improved +60bp to -14.9; while Industry and Services remained almost unchanged;

3 – The Portuguese ESI outperformed, adjusted -190bp MoM to 105.1 from a strong August; compares with 12MMA: 105.6 and 3MMA: 106.2;

4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, Services -400bp MoM to 8.9; vs 12MMA: 11.3 and 3MMA: 11.1; was the main reason for the adjustment;

5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, +10bp MoM to 100.0; compares with the 12MMA: 99.9 and 3MMA: 99.8;

Our comments: The Euro Area ESI in September went slightly up +20bpMoM to 95.5; almost in line with the moving averages (3Q25 average data: -0.5%YoY/+1.2%QoQ). Meanwhile, Portugal adjusted from a strong August, even so keeps outperforming the EU, on a yearly basis (3Q25 average data: +3.8%YoY/+1.2%QoQ). Finally, Polish data almost stable, in line with moving averages.

Source: Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research