Macro View

Portuguese Economy – March retail sales, volumes, +2.2%YoY, o/w Food: +2.0% and non-Food: +2.4%. Meanwhile, seasonal adjusted data points to +5%YoY

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Summing up, Retail Sales in March slowed down, mainly due to Easter impact (volumes: +2.2%YoY), as seasonal adjusted data remains upbeat (5%YoY). Even so, the pace of growth, over the year, should slowdown, as the impact of lower interest rates fades away, while the 4Q25, should be difficult due to the base effect. Finally internet sales in March outperformed.      

The Portuguese Statistic Institute (INE) has just released March’s Retail Sales data.  

We would highlight the following:

• Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +2.2%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) +4.5% and 3MMA +4.0%;
• Non-food Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +2.4%YoY vs. 12MMA +4.5% and 3MMA +4.1%;
• Food Sales, deflated raw data: +2.0%YoY vs. 12MMA +4.5% and 3MMA +4.0%;
• Nominal Food sales (raw data): +3.0%YoY vs. 12MMA +4.5% and 3MMA +5.1%;
• Clothes, Shoes & Textile (nominal raw data): -2.7%YoY vs. 12MMA: +5.2% and 3MMA: 2.3%;
• Household goods (nominal raw data): -1.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: +1.9% and 3MMA: -1.3%;

• Mail and Internet retail (nominal raw data): +14.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 5.1% and 3MMA: 9.9%.

Separately, the Spanish Statistic Institute released, yesterday before, March retail sales data, namely E-commerce, Non-food retail sales, went up 18.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: 8.5% and 3MMA: 10.3%.   

Our comments: Retail sales in March slowed down; volumes +2.2%YoY, o/w Non-food Sales +2.4%YoY and Food Sales +2.0%YoY; below moving averages. Nevertheless, Easter was in March last year, so seasonal adjusted data points to 5%YoY; 3.6% and 6.6%; respectively.

Summing up, Retail Sales in March, adjusted mainly due to Easter impact, as seasonal adjusted data remains upbeat. Even so, the pace of growth, over the year, should slowdown, as the impact of lower interest rates fades away, while the 4Q25 could be difficult due to the base effect.

Finally, internet sales in March were robust, Portugal, +14%YoY and Spain: 18.8% (1Q25 average: 9.9% and 10.3%; respectively), partially explained by a low base effect.  

Source: INE, Eurostat, AS Independent Research