Macro View

(reading time: 4 mins)

Summing up, strong retail sales data in November, as was the case of October, volumes, +6.4%YoY; food: +7.4% and non-Food: 5.7%; above moving averages. Consumers remain upbeat, leveraging on lower interest rates, high real salaries and ultra-loose fiscal policies.

The Portuguese Statistic Institute (INE) released  yesterday November’s Retail Sales data.  

We would highlight the following:

• Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +6.4%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) +3.8% and 3MMA +5.5%;
• Non-food Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +5.7%YoY vs. 12MMA +2.9% and 3MMA +5.4%;
• Food Sales, deflated raw data: +7.4%YoY vs. 12MMA +4.9% and 3MMA +5.6%;
• Nominal Food sales (raw data): +6.6%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.1% and 3MMA +4.6%;
• Clothes, Shoes & Textile (nominal raw data): +7.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: +4.9% and 3MMA: 9.5%;
• Household goods (nominal raw data): 4.5%YoY vs. 12MMA: +1.9% and 3MMA: +4.0%;

• Mail and Internet retail (nominal raw data): +4.2%YoY vs. 12MMA: 1.2% and 3MMA: 5.1%.

Separately the Spanish Statistic Institute, released November’s retail sales data. We highlight the following:

• Electronic Commerce (non-food): -0.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: 5.9% and 3MMA:6%.

Our comments: Retail sales in November, volumes +6.4%YoY, strong data, above moving averages and confirming an economy supported by consumption. Lower interest rates, high real salaries and ultra-loose fiscal policy (Effective Revenues in November: -13.9%YoY o/w IRS: -42.1%YoY; Effective Expenditure: -0.5%YoY), are the main explanations; similar to October. Food sales, deflated data, also very strong, +7.4%YoY, while nominal data slightly less strong, +6.6%, pointing to food deflation, which could be justified by the discount factors and/or could be reviewed. Finally, non-food sales also very strong, +5.7%YoY, above moving averages. Fiscal policy in December should be less expansionary, so data could be slightly weaker.

Summing up, strong retail sales data in November, as was the case of October, +6.4%YoY; food: +7.4% and non-Food: 5.7%; above moving averages. Consumers remain upbeat, leveraging on lower interest rates, high real salaries and ultra-loose fiscal policies.

Source: INE, Eurostat, AS Independent Research