Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up, Retail Sales in November, volumes (without service stations and car sales): +7.6%YoY, quite strong data, above moving averages; o/w, Food: +5.5% above moving averages and non-Food +9.2%, also above moving averages (seasonal adjusted data was also quite strong). So, after a strong 3Q25, the last quarter of the year is also pointing to a strong performance, Food, and non-Food. The high base effect in October/November did not prevent data to outperform, so December should be also quite strong.    

The Portuguese Statistic Institute (INE) has just released November’s Retail Sales data.  

We would highlight the following:

• Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +7.6%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) +5.6% and 3MMA +6.2%;
• Non-food Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +9.2%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.7% and 3MMA +7.6%;
• Food Sales, deflated raw data: +5.5%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.3% and 3MMA +4.5%;
• Nominal Food sales (raw data): +8.0%YoY vs. 12MMA +7.0% and 3MMA +7.0%;
• Clothes, Shoes & Textile (nominal raw data): -3.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: +3.4% and 3MMA: +2.7%;
• Household goods (nominal raw data): 13.8%YoY vs. 12MMA: +4.0% and 3MMA: 5.5%;

• Mail and Internet retail (nominal raw data): -0.5%YoY vs. 12MMA: 4.8% and 3MMA: 0.5%.

Separately, the Spanish Statistic Institute also released, November retail sales data, namely “E-commerce, Non-food retail sales”: +13.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 11.6% and 3MMA: 12.3%.   

Our comments: Retail sales in November, volumes, remained quite strong +7.6%YoY; above moving averages, o/w Non-Food, +9.2%YoY, above moving averages, and Food +5.5%, also above moving averages. Seasonal adjusted data was also strong.

So, in fact, data is just conforming the empirical observation, streets are full of cars and the shops full of people, namely the shopping centers. Finally, the ecommerce in Portugal, apparently keeps underperforming while in Spain, apparently, is growing below 15%     

Source: INE, Eurostat, AS Independent Research