Macro View

(reading time: 3 mins)

Summing up, Retail Sales in October , volumes: +4.7%YoY, remained strong even so below moving averages; o/w, Food: +5.0% above 3MMA and non-Food +4.4%, below moving averages. The Quarter started at a positive pace, namely Food, the base effect could prevent a better performance in November and December.  

The Portuguese Statistic Institute (INE) has just released October’s Retail Sales data.  

We would highlight the following:

• Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +4.7%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) +5.4% and 3MMA +5.1%;
• Non-food Retail sales deflated raw data (without service stations and car sales): +4.4%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.3% and 3MMA +5.9%;
• Food Sales, deflated raw data: +5.0%YoY vs. 12MMA +5.5% and 3MMA +4.3%;
• Nominal Food sales (raw data): +7.4%YoY vs. 12MMA +6.9% and 3MMA +6.8%;
• Clothes, Shoes & Textile (nominal raw data): -3.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: +3.4% and 3MMA: +2.7%;
• Household goods (nominal raw data): -0.3%YoY vs. 12MMA: +0.3% and 3MMA: -0.8%;

• Mail and Internet retail (nominal raw data): -2.3%YoY vs. 12MMA: 4.9% and 3MMA: 2.4%.

Separately, the Spanish Statistic Institute released, last week, October retail sales data, namely “E-commerce, Non-food retail sales”, +11.0%YoY vs. 12MMA: 10.5% and 3MMA: 13.1%.   

Our comments: Retail sales in October, volumes, remained strong +4.7%YoY; even so slightly below 3MMA. Non-Food, +4.4%YoY, below moving averages and Food +5.0%, above 3MMA.

The 4Q25 started at a positive pace, despite slightly below moving averages, namely Food data. Ecommerce performance in Portugal, apparently, remains lacklustre, while in Spain keeps growing at low double digit.        

Source: INE, Eurostat, AS Independent Research