Macro View

(reading time: 2 mins)

The Bank of Portugal released yesterday evening the monthly Coincident indicators, namely December’s data. The figures were the following:

1 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.2%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 1.9% and 3MMA: 2.1%;  

2 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 3.4%YoY vs. 12MMA: 3.4% and 3MMA: 3.1%. 

Separately, the BoP, also released yesterday (weekly data), the Daily Economic Index (DEI), December (average) +2.3%YoY, 4Q25: 2.1% and January to date: +2.5% (it’s more volatile than the Coincident Indicators).            

Our comments: December Coincident Indicators, namely Economic Activity: +2.2%; slightly above moving averages keeps performing (even that, the last three months were reviewed slightly downwards), while the Private Consumption remains stronger, +3.4% (recent data was reviewed upwards), above 3MMA and in line with 12MMA.

Summing up, the economy is on track to finish the last quarter of the year, in a positive momentum, in line with the recent past, however the base effect was very strong GDP 4Q24 (+2.6%YoY), so the GDP growth in the 4Q25 should be below the 3Q25 (+2.4%). Finally, according to DEI, January to date:+2.5%, means the economy kept the momentum at the beginning of the year.     

Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research