April 26, 2024
reading time: 3 mins
Summing up: The DEI remained weak in the second and third week of April (negative growth), after the Easter effect adjustments, which could mean a change on the underlying growth trend in the Portuguese economy.
The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).
1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile, so our comments are mainly based on weekly data. The DEI weekly average has adjusted in April, +1.2%MtD (1.5% the week before), after a strong March (+7.7%YoY). The Easter effect was probably, partially responsible for the strong March’s performance and April first week weakness, however the persistence of weakness in in the 2nd and 3rd week of April, negative data, could be a change on the underlying trend, namely lower growth.
Our comments: The DEI remained weak in the second and third week of April (negative growth), after the Easter effect, which could mean a change on the underlying growth trend in the Portuguese economy.
Daily Economic Indicator
Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
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