March 28, 2024
(reading time: 4 mins)
The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).
1 - DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are less volatile, so our comments are mainly based on weekly data. The DEI, weekly average, lost steam over the last few days, so March is now: +7.2% vs. 8.4% the week before and the 1QtD: 5.9% vs. 6% the week before. Nevertheless, probably, won’t be enough to impact the quarter’s performance, that we expect in line with 4Q23. As we have been saying, strong job market, inflation coming down, salaries increasing above inflation and expectations that central banks start the easing monetary period, are enough ingredients to feed the economy.
Our comments: The DEI, weekly average, slightly adjusted over the last few days, March is now 7.2%YoY vs. 8.4% the week before, nevertheless the impact over the quarter is meaningless, 1QtD23: +5.9% vs. 6% the week before. So, the economy keeps performing, we expect YoY figures in line with the 4Q23. The current environment, strong job market, lower inflation data, higher salaries and the expectations central banks will initiate the easing monetary process, are strong ingredients to feed the economy.
Daily Economic Indicator
Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
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