March 27, 2024
reading time: 3 mins
Summing up, in March the Euro Area ESI is consolidation at low levels, slightly above moving averages, while Portugal has improved and is definitely above moving averages. In Portugal, Services and Consumer sentiment are driving the performance, while Industry is slowly improving. The coming quarters, as central banks have been announcing, should be dominated by the expectations of lower interest rates, while inflation is apparently under control and salaries are increasing above inflation. So the environment, namely in Portugal, remains friendly.
The European Commission has just released, March’s monthly surveys, concerning the Euro Area (EA) and countries breakdown, namely Portugal.
The main highlights are the following:
- 1 – March’s Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) went up 0.8 points MoM to 96.3 vs. 12MMA (12 month moving average) 95.5 and 3MMA: 96;
- 2 – Concerning the sub components, all slightly improved, but Construction, and in general close to the moving averages;
- 3 – The Portuguese ESI also improved, +0.7 points MoM to 100.8 vs. 12MMA: 98.4 and 3MMA: 99.5;
- 4 – Regarding the subcomponents in Portugal, the main contributors were Consumer Confidence: +2.6 points MoM and Services, +1.6 points MoM; while the remaining recorded minor changes ;
- 5 – Separately, the Polish ESI was also released, went slightly up sequentially +0.3; to 101.8; compares with 12MMA: 97.1 and 3MMA: 101.8; apparently stabilizing.
Our comments: The Euro Area is consolidating at low levels, figures in line with moving averages, meanwhile Portugal continues to benefit mainly from Services (30% weight) and Consumer sentiment (20%), while Industry is slightly improving.
Finally, Poland ESI recorded a small sequential improvement, current data consolidating around 3MMA and slightly above 12MMA.
Bank of Portugal, European Commission, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
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