April 18, 2024
reading time: 4 mins
Summing up: : The Economic Activity Coincident Indicator, just released, in March slightly adjusted, +2.2%YoY vs. 3MMA: +2.3%, however Private Consumption increased +2.6%YoY vs. 3MMA: +2.4%. So, as we have been mentioning, the positive momentum in the economy gained over the 4Q23, was in place in the 1Q24. The doubts are now regarding the 2Q24 performance, the DEI in April, just released, has underperformed, +1.5%MtD, however the Easter effect should partially explain the poor performance. The coming weeks should add more colour on April’s underlying performance.
The Bank of Portugal has just released the Daily Economic Activity Indicator (“The DEI, is published every Thursdays, and is based on high-frequency data and makes it possible to capture changes in economic activity in a timely manner… five daily series, namely card-based payments, road traffic of heavy commercial vehicles, cargo and mail landed, electricity consumption and natural gas consumption. These series present the strongest co-movement with GDP developments among the series assessed”, the for more information please go to https://www.bportugal.pt/publications/banco-de-portugal/all/9085).
- 1 – The DEI is volatile, namely the daily observations (please see the graph below), while the weekly moving averages are slightly less volatile, so our comments are mainly based on weekly data. The DEI weekly average has adjusted in April, +1.5%MtD, after a strong March (+7.9%YoY), however, as we mentioned before, the DEI doesn’t adjust holidays, so the Easter effect should partially explained the overperformance by the end of March and the underperformance at the beginning of April (Easter, last year, was April 9).
- Separately the BoP also released the monthly Coincident indicators, namely March’s data. The figures were the following:
- 2 - Economic Activity Coincident Indicator: 2.2%YoY vs. 12MMA (12 months moving average): 3.0% and 3MMA: 2.3%;
- 3 - Private Consumption Coincident Indicator: 2.6%YoY vs. 12MMA: 2.6% and 3MMA: 2.4%.
Our comments: The Economic Coincident indicator in March slightly adjusted, +2.2%YoY vs. 3MMA: 2.3%, however Private Consumption increased +2.6%YoY vs. 3MMA: 2.4%. So from our understanding, the positive momentum gained over the 4Q23, remained in place in the 1Q24. The doubts are now, regarding the 2Q24 performance, the DEI in April, has underperformed, +1.5%MtD, however the Easter effect should partially explain the poor performance. The coming weeks should add more colour on April’s underlying trend.
Daily Economic Indicator
Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
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